In the 1995 season in the city of Surfer, the premiere race in Australia, a 14-kilometer hike through Hyde Park in Central Sydney to the Pacific Ocean, a 19-year-old, suffering from a cardiac arrest at the finish line, then died. 600 people were treated for minor problems, and 200 - by physiotherapists. Medical centers treated 55 participants, of which 38 treated heat exhaustion.
“People who get into trouble are very motivated amateurs who train in the cool of the day and are not ready for competition.”
Dr. Rowley Richards
- Urban Surf Medical Director
Of course, the doctor should not indicate physical exertion in conditions of extreme heat. I’m sure that at some point, each of us was overly exposed in the heat, even if it means a crazy sprint vanishing ice cream truck. In fact, it is no secret that football players are the best athletes in the world, because they have to be. Try running for 60 minutes in an open-air stadium at the equator or in the deserts of northern Africa. Better yet, try it with full pillows and a helmet at the NFL preseason meeting in Phoenix, Arizona, in August. Not surprisingly, the Arizona Cardinals get three of their first four games of each season on the road.
Following this simple human truth, she will follow in football, just like in marathons or any other sporting event, that better conditions for athletes will be better in extreme heat than less trained athletes. While oddsmakers take into account many factors in determining points, it is fair to say that the best teams are better, at least in part, because of their excellent physical conditioning.
The most successful training camp in the 1998 season (our test season) in terms of attendance and player commitment was that the Denver Broncos. The fresh runaway over the 1997 Super Bowl, where physical training was a decisive factor in the pit, because the light but well-conditioned O-Line in Denver simply dominated the large, but relatively informal D-Line green bay, the Broncos returned to the secret well that gave them an added advantage when it made a big difference and it paid off again.
We are not surprised when a stronger and better condition of an athlete dominates in the ring and on the legs, so why should we be surprised when football players win better on the football field, especially when the elements require excellent efforts. In fact, this is precisely the reality of today's NFL, since league-parity reduces the gap in talent, these are intangible assets, such as physical condition, which give some teams an advantage on some days.
In fact, in 1998, the NFL had 17 regular season games, where the game time temperature was recorded at 86 degrees or higher. The favorite in these 17 games made a 15-2 record straight up and a 12-4-1 ATS record. In fact, out of two direct losses, one of which Carolina lost to Atlanta as a home favorite in the first week, but remember that the Falcons continued to play in the Super Bowl this season. Another case was the loss of 13-7, Tennessee - their debut in Nashville at Vanderbilt Stadium on week 2 against The Chargers, which seems to be the only true exception to the rule.
Moreover, the hotter it became, the more common the phenomenon became. In 1998 there were six games where the temperature reached 90 degrees during game time. They were;
WEEK 1 - Arizona @ Dallas - 97 degrees
WEEK 1 - Auckland @ Kansas City - 94 degrees
WEEK 1 - Pittsburgh @ Baltimore - 91 degrees
WEEK 3 - Philadelphia @ Arizona - 99 degrees
WEEK 4 - Denver @ Washington - 90 degrees
WEEK 6 - Chicago @ Arizona - 91 degrees
Now, there are amazing similarities between all six of the above hotties, plus they all reached 90 degrees or higher during the game. Oddly enough, all six games saw that the favorite heat stick is much better than the smaller team of the day, and triumphantly beat the outsider. The favorites had a 6-0 ATS mark on outsiders when the fire was burning. In fact, the outsiders in these 6 games had problems catching more than just their breath, since none of the outsiders in any of these games registered more than 16 points. In fact, in combination, the outsiders in these 6 contests scored only 57 points, or 9.5 per game on average. Fans in these 6 games were able to take advantage of a protected defense, as the favorites came together for a whopping 161 points in these 6 games, compared with 57 allowed.
Another interesting property of heat is its exhausting effect with time. In other words, how would the heat reflect on the defense when the game wears? This is a very intriguing question, and one that can open the door to unspeakable possibilities. Consider the results of the following diagram, which is a breakdown by quarters as a favorite, as well as an outsider and a cumulative score in six hot games.
Fourth. 1st 1st half 3rd. Total.
Favorite. 30 41. 71. 34 56.
Underdog. 3 7. 10. 21 26. 57.
TOTAL. 33 48. 81. 55 82. 218.
I do not need to tell you about the astounding consequences of the graph above and what this might mean for half the time and the totals. The results are astounding. But really, should we be surprised? I think it’s really not rocket science to conclude that a hot game will have a predictable effect for both teams as the game goes on, but sometimes we cannot see the forest for the trees. Favorite continues to dominate the hot game from wires to wires, but even excellent protection begins to weaken as the game progresses, and points are becoming more numerous.
It is also not surprising that in these games it is difficult to find points, since teams prefer to score a line and wear protection in favor of sending their receivers for deep walks. Under Total, 67% of our 90-degree games were played or higher, which corresponded to hot games in general, since Under the Total was the result of 67% of games where the temperature of the game was 86 degrees or higher.
